Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-05 3.714481 4.033371 4.383932 4.801208 5.288819 5.846310 6.540433
2025-01-12 3.214426 3.618120 4.090548 4.694626 5.462694 6.431083 7.788146
2025-01-19 2.870165 3.301854 3.827015 4.530439 5.477916 6.760560 8.733216
2025-01-26 2.719714 3.190838 3.784681 4.615856 5.800973 7.528497 10.476439
2025-02-02 2.637788 3.150939 3.819473 4.795572 6.268898 8.591143 13.054954
2025-02-09 2.545338 3.085017 3.807368 4.900242 6.634094 9.571295 15.934400
2025-02-16 2.416590 2.958272 3.696988 4.843116 6.728756 10.103711 18.172729
2025-02-23 2.310528 2.853884 3.607560 4.804403 6.842409 10.692834 20.909411
2025-03-02 2.214500 2.756482 3.519412 4.756065 6.928320 11.245715 23.970525
2025-03-09 2.129250 2.668716 3.438230 4.709112 7.007033 11.802862 27.569781
2025-03-16 2.062392 2.603066 3.384797 4.701090 7.154988 12.557639 32.788207
2025-03-23 2.019219 2.568849 3.375873 4.765548 7.451798 13.769791 42.073798
2025-03-30 1.940711 2.480174 3.279315 4.673481 7.427001 14.172227 48.347243
2025-04-06 1.866590 2.394815 3.183352 4.574838 7.376124 14.498286 55.293035
2025-04-13 1.785118 2.295192 3.059849 4.417721 7.180595 14.355043 58.640829
2025-04-20 1.760331 2.279387 3.068472 4.499639 7.519259 15.966138 86.403673
2025-04-27 1.754958 2.292311 3.123516 4.671815 8.096293 18.712992 174.234328
2025-05-04 1.735440 2.282330 3.139951 4.772009 8.525264 21.269117 439.567012
2025-05-11 1.688956 2.228424 3.079968 4.717334 8.556012 22.219060 941.950349
2025-05-18 1.648377 2.182262 3.030791 4.680271 8.627768 23.430432 6037.168952
2025-05-25 1.608549 2.135866 2.979021 4.633982 8.668458 24.549145 NaN
2025-06-01 1.571129 2.092023 2.929666 4.589006 8.706825 25.718435 NaN
2025-06-08 1.541813 2.060091 2.899428 4.581321 8.850197 27.644161 NaN